The 25-Year Bet About Technology

 For this assignment, we discussed the 25-Year bet placed by Kevin Kelly and Kirkpatrick Sale in
1995. 

Who is Kevin Kelly?

Kevin Kelly is a Senior Maverick and cofounder of WIRED. He is a writer obsessed with the advancements of technology and how it will continue to positively impact our world in the coming years. He determined technology was an important aspect to our society after his travels to Asia and India. He is a competitive man who is confident in his own beliefs and would even go as far as to make a scientific bet against Sale’s who is someone with contradictory beliefs to his own. He is a strong activist from his time that uses his words to convince others of the excitement of a world of technology. 

Who is Patrick Sale? 

Kirkpatrick Sale is a man of strong hate for technology. He is a huge supporter of the Luddites and has written books about how technology will doom our world, not just in our society but the natural world as well. He is the author of Rebels Against the Future  where he shared his thoughts on why we should go back to pre-industrial times. He is a very opinionated man who has never swayed from his beliefs, he is political. He wrote a musical while he was at Cornell University about an evil computer, and even told his own daughters not to have children. He seems like he does not have many friends but that does not bother him. 

Describe the chief conflict between the two men.

The main conflict between the two men was based on the growing use of technology in our world post-industrial revolution. Kelly believed technology made our lives easier and would only improve our world and solve all its problems, whereas Sale disliked technology’s use in our world and believed it would cause more problems and make things worse, specifically in our currency, social classes, and environment. 

What was the bet they made?

The two men made a bet both with beliefs that their opinions would prove right by the year 2020. Sale picked 2020 because it was a good rounded number. Kelly believed by 2020, technology would have made our world better and would not cause it to collapse. Sale on the other hand believed that the year 2020 would prove chaotic and technology would be the reason for its demise. They both bet 1,000 dollars on their views and left the decision up to Bill Patrick, someone who was not biased and they knew would go about the vote respecting the views of both sides.

How did the bet go in the three areas measured?

Economic Collapse went to Kelly, because Sale believed that currency would be worthless by 2020, where instead there was progress which is as Kelly predicted. Technology has made more efficient ways to use currency. 

Global Environmental Disaster went to Sale, who predicted that the world would experience natural disasters by 2020. Patrick sided with Sale on this one because we were experiencing floods, hurricanes, fires, a pandemic, and more during 2020. 

The War Between Rich and Poor was a split. Patrick could see from both sides, there was not much of a “war” between social classes in the U.S., but there had been improvement in classes in areas like India and China, but in the U.S. there was social unrest with all the recent protests. After a toss up it went to Sale. 

Do you agree with the verdict of the judge who settled the bet? Why or why not?

I may be biased because I grew up knowing what life was with technology, but I agree with Patrick's decision because I see technology as a positive thing. We as humans have control over its rapid growth and have control over how much we let it take over our personal lives. Technology really is an amazing thing. I do not think there should be life with no technology. 

What other areas SHOULD the bet have covered? If you were making a similar bet for the NEXT 25 years. what areas would you include for judgment?

The two men could not have realized how much AI would grow in our society, but this is something I would definitely think would be worth making a bet on because it has caused a lot of commotion in today's society. It would be a bet over AI being a positive thing in our industry that has helped boost our economy's overall productivity vs AI growing so much that it limits personal growth and threatens our security.  

What changes do you think the next 25 years will bring?

I think AI will continue to grow. It will be important that we do not let it get out of hand. I also think there will be enhancements in our transportation, houses, and services. 

For more information visit: https://www.wired.com/story/a-25-year-old-bet-comes-due-has-tech-destroyed-society/